With CD sales down 8.5 percent so far this year, following an eighteen percent drop from 2000 to 2004, the music business heads into its crucial holiday season desperate for blockbusters. Only one problem: There aren't any.
Aside from Madonna's Confessions on a Dancefloor, due November 15th, and 50 Cent's soundtrack to Get Rich or Die Tryin', the biggest fall names are Mary J. Blige, Santana, Jessica Simpson, System of a Down and OutKast (with a soundtrack album). Other releases that retailers are optimistic about include Stevie Wonder's A Time to Love, American Idol winner Carrie Underwood and runner-up Bo Bice, and Neil Diamond's collaboration with producer Rick Rubin. "There aren't as many marquee titles as the last couple of years," says Dave Alder, chief marketing officer for Virgin Entertainment Group, which owns the Virgin Megastore chain. "There's not a lot of certainty. But that'll be compensated for by the volume of slightly smaller acts. Diversity is the key factor."
This year has been so devoid of hits that labels have even started repackaging their most successful records from just a few months ago -- like 50 Cent's The Massacre (Special Edition), with new videos; the Killers' Hot Fuss, with three new tracks; and coming on November 15th, Mariah Carey's The Emancipation of Mimi, with bonus tracks.
Even strong May-June openings from Coldplay, Foo Fighters, Dave Matthews Band and Audioslave couldn't save a terrible summer for retailers. "Summer sales in general sucked," says Barry Weiss, CEO and president of the Zomba Label Group, which had minor summer hits with R. Kelly's TP.3 Reloaded and 311's Don't Tread on Me. "There have been a lot of big records [in 2005], but no phenomenon record -- like Usher's last year."
Label executives are optimistic about Kanye West's Late Registration -- which has sold more than 1.3 million copies since its August 30th release and will likely stay strong through the holidays -- and the fact that online sales have increased 167 percent so far this year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. "You don't have those one or two obvious blockbusters," says Tom Corson, general manager of Arista/J Records. "But Mariah keeps selling, Kanye West could pick up momentum, Kelly Clarkson has had hit after hit, the Black Eyed Peas have had fifteen straight weeks of solid sales. The bench is solid."